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Biggest GDP Contraction Ever

2020-07-30T15:57:20-07:00

The best thing we can say about today’s US gross domestic product (GDP) report for the second quarter is that it’s behind us. GDP contracted at a 32.9% annualized rate during the quarter, the largest decline on record. If we had quarterly GDP stats during the Great Depression, this quarter’s contraction might have eclipsed those [...]

Biggest GDP Contraction Ever2020-07-30T15:57:20-07:00

Dollar Weakness May Continue

2020-07-23T17:40:54-07:00

The US dollar was remarkably strong during the first quarter of 2020, benefitting from the flight to safety and rallying to nearly a 10% year-to-date gain at the stock market’s low point on March 23. However, as equity markets have recovered, and the US has continued to fight the COVID-19 pandemic, the dollar has given [...]

Dollar Weakness May Continue2020-07-23T17:40:54-07:00

Real-Time Data Recovery Stalled Amid COVID-19 Resurgence

2020-07-15T14:49:01-07:00

We check in again today on some of the real-time economic data that LPL Research is monitoring to provide insight into how the latest increase in COVID-19 cases and the rollback of certain reopening measures are affecting the state of the US economy, as traditional monthly and quarterly economic data are too slow to pick [...]

Real-Time Data Recovery Stalled Amid COVID-19 Resurgence2020-07-15T14:49:01-07:00

Mortgage Rates Fall to Record Low

2020-06-30T13:51:12-07:00

Nearly four months ago, in late February, the 10-year Treasury yield broke to its lowest level ever, undercutting the record lows from 2016 of 1.32%. Over the following two weeks, as fears surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic intensified, interest rates experienced an unprecedented collapse, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note eventually trading as low [...]

Mortgage Rates Fall to Record Low2020-06-30T13:51:12-07:00

Why Stocks Can Predict The Next President

2020-06-29T11:21:19-07:00

Although the fight against COVID-19 continues to dominate the headlines and our thoughts are with those affected, this is a Presidential election year and as we get closer to November it will begin to garner more attention. Who will be President? Next week in our Weekly Market Commentary, we will discuss the election in more detail, but [...]

Why Stocks Can Predict The Next President2020-06-29T11:21:19-07:00

Are CLOs a Systemic Risk? Collateralized Loan Obligations

2020-06-25T15:09:44-07:00

What is a Collateralized Loan Obligation (CLO)? Collateralized loan obligations (CLO) are portfolios of leveraged loans, a type of below-investment grade loan usually taken out by more heavily indebted companies. Each CLO is divided into a series of tranches with different degrees of risk. The more senior tranches receive their interest payments first, and therefore, have [...]

Are CLOs a Systemic Risk? Collateralized Loan Obligations2020-06-25T15:09:44-07:00

Leading Indicators Turn Positive

2020-06-22T09:10:41-07:00

Yesterday, The Conference Board released last month’s reading for its Leading Economic Index (LEI), a composite of leading data series, which showed a month-over-month increase of 2.8%. As seen in the LPL Chart of the Day, the return to positive territory follows three straight months of negative monthly growth. ”We noted that the pace of [...]

Leading Indicators Turn Positive2020-06-22T09:10:41-07:00

Retail Sales Beat Shows Consumers Coming Back Strong

2020-06-18T07:44:46-07:00

COVID-19 has decimated global demand as lockdowns materially re-shaped consumer and business behavior. Even as states have begun to re-open, significant questions remain about how demand could recover. The May retail sales print provided one of the first glimpses of that answer, rising 17.7% month over month and marking the largest monthly gain since data [...]

Retail Sales Beat Shows Consumers Coming Back Strong2020-06-18T07:44:46-07:00

Next Rate Hike We See May Be 2023

2020-06-15T07:48:46-07:00

The Federal Reserve (Fed) completed its third scheduled policy meeting of the year Wednesday, June 10, and continued to signal strong support for the economy, committing to keeping rates near zero until it is confident of a recovery and maintaining bond purchases (“quantitative easing”), at least at the current level. “Despite some early signs [...]

Next Rate Hike We See May Be 20232020-06-15T07:48:46-07:00

Bond Markets Not Yet Believers

2020-06-15T07:49:29-07:00

The S&P 500 Index has rallied mightily off of its March 23 low, climbing almost 40% through the close of the market yesterday, as market participants look ahead to the economy continuing to gradually reopen. While there are signs that bond market participants’ overall assessment of the economy is slowly edging toward a similar [...]

Bond Markets Not Yet Believers2020-06-15T07:49:29-07:00
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