Confidence is on the rise.

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index jumped to 101.8 from August’s 86.3, beating estimates by the most since November 2011 and delivering the largest month-over-month increase since April 2003. Not surprisingly, the majority of the previous largest monthly increases occurred at the end of a recession or beginning of a new expansion. This is yet another clue the recession is likely over. Given the consumer makes up two-thirds of gross domestic product (GDP), this could bode well for the recovery.

This is something we discussed recently on my market update webinar. We suggest keeping a close eye on this metric to better understand market volatility and where the stock market might be headed.

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