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Was Trump Right About Rates?

2020-09-07T07:14:58-07:00

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell gave a significant speech at the annual central bank symposium at Jackson Hole last week in which he laid out the general conclusions of the Fed’s review of its Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy. That document outlines how the Fed goes about fulfilling its congressionally assigned [...]

Was Trump Right About Rates?2020-09-07T07:14:58-07:00

When Do Rates Start Rising After a Recession?

2020-09-02T11:51:11-07:00

As the economy begins to recover, with the early stage more robust than expected, we increasingly get asked when interest rates will move meaningfully higher. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, historically rates don’t start to move higher until a median of about two years after a recession starts, and five [...]

When Do Rates Start Rising After a Recession?2020-09-02T11:51:11-07:00

Latest Charts on Economy and COVID-19

2020-08-31T15:49:19-07:00

We continue to follow high-frequency data to assess whether the US recovery remains on track or if it has been derailed by COVID-19 outbreaks in parts of the country. Here we look at 5 charts that illustrate that the economic recovery remains on track and help explain why stocks continue to do so well despite [...]

Latest Charts on Economy and COVID-192020-08-31T15:49:19-07:00

Are Recessions Good For Stocks

2020-08-05T14:12:45-07:00

This isn’t like any recession we’ve ever seen, as it was sparked by a horrible pandemic and happened because people were told to stay inside. The impact was the worst contraction in gross domestic product (GDP) last quarter that anyone who is reading this has ever seen. But what is quite surprising is the fact [...]

Are Recessions Good For Stocks2020-08-05T14:12:45-07:00

Biggest GDP Contraction Ever

2020-07-30T15:57:20-07:00

The best thing we can say about today’s US gross domestic product (GDP) report for the second quarter is that it’s behind us. GDP contracted at a 32.9% annualized rate during the quarter, the largest decline on record. If we had quarterly GDP stats during the Great Depression, this quarter’s contraction might have eclipsed those [...]

Biggest GDP Contraction Ever2020-07-30T15:57:20-07:00

Dollar Weakness May Continue

2020-07-23T17:40:54-07:00

The US dollar was remarkably strong during the first quarter of 2020, benefitting from the flight to safety and rallying to nearly a 10% year-to-date gain at the stock market’s low point on March 23. However, as equity markets have recovered, and the US has continued to fight the COVID-19 pandemic, the dollar has given [...]

Dollar Weakness May Continue2020-07-23T17:40:54-07:00

Real-Time Data Recovery Stalled Amid COVID-19 Resurgence

2020-07-15T14:49:01-07:00

We check in again today on some of the real-time economic data that LPL Research is monitoring to provide insight into how the latest increase in COVID-19 cases and the rollback of certain reopening measures are affecting the state of the US economy, as traditional monthly and quarterly economic data are too slow to pick [...]

Real-Time Data Recovery Stalled Amid COVID-19 Resurgence2020-07-15T14:49:01-07:00

Mortgage Rates Fall to Record Low

2020-06-30T13:51:12-07:00

Nearly four months ago, in late February, the 10-year Treasury yield broke to its lowest level ever, undercutting the record lows from 2016 of 1.32%. Over the following two weeks, as fears surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic intensified, interest rates experienced an unprecedented collapse, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note eventually trading as low [...]

Mortgage Rates Fall to Record Low2020-06-30T13:51:12-07:00

Why Stocks Can Predict The Next President

2020-06-29T11:21:19-07:00

Although the fight against COVID-19 continues to dominate the headlines and our thoughts are with those affected, this is a Presidential election year and as we get closer to November it will begin to garner more attention. Who will be President? Next week in our Weekly Market Commentary, we will discuss the election in more detail, but [...]

Why Stocks Can Predict The Next President2020-06-29T11:21:19-07:00

Are CLOs a Systemic Risk? Collateralized Loan Obligations

2020-06-25T15:09:44-07:00

What is a Collateralized Loan Obligation (CLO)? Collateralized loan obligations (CLO) are portfolios of leveraged loans, a type of below-investment grade loan usually taken out by more heavily indebted companies. Each CLO is divided into a series of tranches with different degrees of risk. The more senior tranches receive their interest payments first, and therefore, have [...]

Are CLOs a Systemic Risk? Collateralized Loan Obligations2020-06-25T15:09:44-07:00

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