The S&P 500 Index has rallied mightily off of its March 23 low, climbing almost 40% through the close of the market yesterday, as market participants look ahead to the economy continuing to gradually reopen. While there are signs that bond market participants’ overall assessment of the economy is slowly edging toward a similar [...]
The stock market keeps going higher, yet the economic data remains some of the worst we’ve ever seen. This incredible disconnect has a lot of investors quite confused as to what is really happening. “Although this record rally has many scratching their heads, we need to remember the stock market is likely looking ahead [...]
Despite the gradual reopening of the economy in several states, sentiment on Main Street remains suppressed, as the effects of COVID-19 appear to be keeping a lid on American optimism in the most recent Federal Reserve (Fed) Beige Book. In the Beige Book, the Fed presents qualitative observations made by community bankers and business owners—or [...]
As the economic data continues to pile in, much of it is showing some of the largest drops ever. Not surprisingly, small businesses are also suffering, as the NFIB Small Business Survey for April dropped significantly for the second consecutive month, but there were some silver linings. For starters, it wasn’t anywhere near as low [...]
Gold has done quite well so far in 2020, up more than 12% year to date versus the S&P 500 Index which is down about 10%. We started to warm to the yellow metal late last year and continue to think it can serve as a potential hedge in a well-diversified portfolio for suitable investors. [...]
Recent economic data confirms that the US economy has entered a recession, led by the consumer, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy based on gross domestic product (GDP). The consumer spending collapse was evident from March’s personal consumption expenditures data released last Wednesday, which showed a record 7.5% month-over-month drop in consumer [...]
One of the most historic market crashes ever took place 10 years ago today, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index plunging more than 1,000 points, or 9%, within minutes, only to regain most of the losses by the end of the day. And thus, the flash crash was born. Originally, a fat finger trade [...]
One of the best known investment axioms is to “sell in May and go away.” This is largely because these six months have historically been some of the worst six months of the year. As you can see below, the next six months have tended to be on the weak side. The next six months [...]
We continue to follow our Road to Recovery Playbook for help determining where the market is in its bottoming process and yesterday we upgraded Signal #1, confidence in timing of a peak in new COVID-19 cases, to “Already there.” “Three of the five signals from our Road to Recovery Playbook are now in place,” said LPL Financial Equity Strategist [...]
Oil had a wild week last week, even turning negative on Monday, April 20, as worries about lower demand in a sharp recession and where to store the actual barrels of oil sparked a historic rout. “The reality is oil isn’t worthless, but at these levels it’s a mixed bag. For consumers, lower oil means [...]
