The US economy had a tumultuous year in 2020, to say the least, and after rebounding strongly in the third quarter, the holiday surge in COVID-19 cases increased the risk that the economy may stumble heading into the new year. The sharp increase in new COVID-19 cases led to additional curbs on activity to contain [...]
Solid holiday shopping season. Holiday sales grew 3%, beating forecasts for a 2.4% increase according to MasterCard’s SpendingPulse. Online sales rose 49% year over year. These results were impressive for a recessionary period—the comparable figure dropped 3.5% in 2008—and highlight the resiliency of the US consumer and benefits of stimulus. Daily Insights Stocks open higher [...]
The November reading for the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the most well-known measure of inflation, was released Thursday, December 12, and while both the headline and “core” readings (excluding food and energy) came in slightly higher than the Bloomberg-surveyed economists’ consensus, core inflation remains tame at 1.6% over the trailing year. Inflation is likely to [...]
Confidence is on the rise. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index jumped to 101.8 from August’s 86.3, beating estimates by the most since November 2011 and delivering the largest month-over-month increase since April 2003. Not surprisingly, the majority of the previous largest monthly increases occurred at the end of a recession or beginning of a new expansion. [...]
The best thing we can say about today’s US gross domestic product (GDP) report for the second quarter is that it’s behind us. GDP contracted at a 32.9% annualized rate during the quarter, the largest decline on record. If we had quarterly GDP stats during the Great Depression, this quarter’s contraction might have eclipsed those [...]
The economic damage inflicted by the current COVID-19 pandemic has been unprecedented, with thousands of businesses temporarily shuttered and millions of workers out of work. While the historic drop in economic activity is real and will be reflected in the second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) numbers, some nuances in the way GDP is reported [...]
Retiring? Saving for retirement? Here’s some good news. Are 90% of articles written about retirement pessimistic? Sometimes it seems that way. Repeatedly, we are reminded that most baby boomers haven’t saved enough for the future. There’s no denying this, but the media is giving short shrift to other, more positive developments that may be improving [...]
