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Challenges Abound in the US Service Sector

2020-05-07T15:13:39-07:00

Recent economic data confirms that the US economy has entered a recession, led by the consumer, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy based on gross domestic product (GDP). The consumer spending collapse was evident from March’s personal consumption expenditures data released last Wednesday, which showed a record 7.5% month-over-month drop in consumer [...]

Challenges Abound in the US Service Sector2020-05-07T15:13:39-07:00

Remembering the Flash Crash

2020-05-06T11:06:01-07:00

One of the most historic market crashes ever took place 10 years ago today, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index plunging more than 1,000 points, or 9%, within minutes, only to regain most of the losses by the end of the day. And thus, the flash crash was born. Originally, a fat finger trade [...]

Remembering the Flash Crash2020-05-06T11:06:01-07:00

Time to Sell in May?

2020-04-30T09:19:47-07:00

One of the best known investment axioms is to “sell in May and go away.” This is largely because these six months have historically been some of the worst six months of the year. As you can see below, the next six months have tended to be on the weak side. The next six months [...]

Time to Sell in May?2020-04-30T09:19:47-07:00

Peak COVID-19 Cases

2020-04-29T13:40:14-07:00

We continue to follow our Road to Recovery Playbook for help determining where the market is in its bottoming process and yesterday we upgraded Signal #1, confidence in timing of a peak in new COVID-19 cases, to “Already there.” “Three of the five signals from our Road to Recovery Playbook are now in place,” said LPL Financial Equity Strategist [...]

Peak COVID-19 Cases2020-04-29T13:40:14-07:00

Gas Guzzling Contracts

2020-04-28T16:19:48-07:00

Oil had a wild week last week, even turning negative on Monday, April 20, as worries about lower demand in a sharp recession and where to store the actual barrels of oil sparked a historic rout. “The reality is oil isn’t worthless, but at these levels it’s a mixed bag. For consumers, lower oil means [...]

Gas Guzzling Contracts2020-04-28T16:19:48-07:00

Negative Oil Futures Price Creates Confusion

2020-04-21T12:47:26-07:00

Headlines had oil selling at -$37.63 per barrel at close on Monday, April 20. The negative sign in front? Sellers had to pay buyers $37.63 to take the oil off their hands. Except this wasn’t the price of oil. It was the price of a useful financial instrument, called a futures contract, in this case [...]

Negative Oil Futures Price Creates Confusion2020-04-21T12:47:26-07:00

What Might Future Bond Returns Look Like?

2020-04-17T09:09:19-07:00

Stock returns get all the headlines, and with US equities entering their first bear market since 2008, there is good reason for that. However, fixed income may account for a significant portion, or even a majority, of many investors’ portfolios, making bond returns just as important for those investors. While we believe stock returns can [...]

What Might Future Bond Returns Look Like?2020-04-17T09:09:19-07:00

Gaining Confidence in a COVID-19 Peak

2020-04-15T18:27:46-07:00

We continue to follow our Road to Recovery Playbook for help determining where the market is in its bottoming process. Today we are making two changes: The first is to Signal #1, which we upgraded from “monitoring daily” to ”almost there.” We aren’t ready to check this one off completely, based on the latest data from Johns [...]

Gaining Confidence in a COVID-19 Peak2020-04-15T18:27:46-07:00

First Quarter Earnings Preview: Finding the Floor

2020-04-13T16:22:16-07:00

First quarter earnings season will kick off this week with 40 S&P 500 Index companies slated to report results, including several of the biggest banks on Tuesday and Wednesday. Analysts are calling for a roughly 10% year-over-year decline in earnings for the index, as shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, down from the [...]

First Quarter Earnings Preview: Finding the Floor2020-04-13T16:22:16-07:00

GDP Forecasts Explained

2020-04-09T09:22:41-07:00

The economic damage inflicted by the current COVID-19 pandemic has been unprecedented, with thousands of businesses temporarily shuttered and millions of workers out of work. While the historic drop in economic activity is real and will be reflected in the second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) numbers, some nuances in the way GDP is reported [...]

GDP Forecasts Explained2020-04-09T09:22:41-07:00
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