US payrolls grew month over month in January following a brief dip into negative territory in December. Peering under the hood, though, this report did little to dispel the notion that the labor market’s recovery has been stalling out, and likely bolsters calls for additional fiscal stimulus. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released its [...]
We continue to follow high-frequency data to assess whether the US recovery remains on track or if it has been derailed by COVID-19 outbreaks in parts of the country. Here we look at 5 charts that illustrate that the economic recovery remains on track and help explain why stocks continue to do so well despite [...]
We check in again today on some of the real-time economic data that LPL Research is monitoring to provide insight into how the latest increase in COVID-19 cases and the rollback of certain reopening measures are affecting the state of the US economy, as traditional monthly and quarterly economic data are too slow to pick [...]
We continue to follow our Road to Recovery Playbook for help determining where the market is in its bottoming process and yesterday we upgraded Signal #1, confidence in timing of a peak in new COVID-19 cases, to “Already there.” “Three of the five signals from our Road to Recovery Playbook are now in place,” said LPL Financial Equity Strategist [...]
Headlines had oil selling at -$37.63 per barrel at close on Monday, April 20. The negative sign in front? Sellers had to pay buyers $37.63 to take the oil off their hands. Except this wasn’t the price of oil. It was the price of a useful financial instrument, called a futures contract, in this case [...]
As COVID-19-related fear continues grip global financial markets, we wanted to take a closer look at factor #1 in our Road to Recovery Playbook: confidence in the timing of a peak of new COVID-19 cases in the United States. This is probably the most difficult signal in the playbook to call with any degree of [...]
We rolled out our Road to Recovery playbook at the start of the week to help investors gauge where the market is in its bottoming process. The first and most important piece of that playbook—visibility into a peak in new COVID-19 cases—remains elusive, but we hope to have a clearer picture with the next couple of [...]
Our everyday lives have changed dramatically over the last few weeks as we work together to minimize the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. We know these efforts are necessary, but they also have come at a cost. Global economic growth has been slowing, the US economy likely will contract temporarily, and US stocks have entered [...]
The market volatility continues, as the S&P 500 Index has closed either up or down 4% or more for a record 7 consecutive days. With the S&P 500 Index down 30% from the highs, it has officially moved into a bear market. Yesterday, we took a look at how stocks did after the lows of major [...]
An open letter to my valued clients and friends. (Originally sent to my Friday newsletter subscribers. Subscribe here) Fears over the spread of COVID-19 (coronavirus) have gripped the country and sent stocks in the US and around the world into bear markets. Thursday’s nearly 10% decline in the S&P 500 Index was one [...]
