The Debt Ceiling – My favorite client FAQs There’s a lot of talk about the Debt Ceiling. What is the Debt Ceiling and should we be scared that the US is coming up quickly on our debt ceiling? What is the debt ceiling? The debt limit, also known as the debt ceiling, is the total [...]
Earnings Estimates for 2023 Impressively Rose Last Week With just over half of S&P 500 companies having reported results, the consensus estimate for S&P 500 year-over-year earnings growth in the first quarter is -3.7%, up more than 2 percentage points from the prior week. While an earnings recession is likely, with a second straight [...]
Solid holiday shopping season. Holiday sales grew 3%, beating forecasts for a 2.4% increase according to MasterCard’s SpendingPulse. Online sales rose 49% year over year. These results were impressive for a recessionary period—the comparable figure dropped 3.5% in 2008—and highlight the resiliency of the US consumer and benefits of stimulus. Daily Insights Stocks open higher [...]
We check in again today on some of the real-time economic data that LPL Research is monitoring to provide timely and valuable insights into the state of the US economy. Traditional economic data is often reported too slowly to pick up the changes that are occurring in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The latest data [...]
While the direction of the 10-year Treasury yield over the last cycle was decidedly lower, as shown in LPL’s Chart of the Day, there were still six extended periods where it rose at least 0.75%, and in two of those it rose almost 2%. Looking ahead, economic growth below potential, slack in the labor market, [...]
Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell gave a significant speech at the annual central bank symposium at Jackson Hole last week in which he laid out the general conclusions of the Fed’s review of its Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy. That document outlines how the Fed goes about fulfilling its congressionally assigned [...]
As the economy begins to recover, with the early stage more robust than expected, we increasingly get asked when interest rates will move meaningfully higher. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, historically rates don’t start to move higher until a median of about two years after a recession starts, and five [...]
“Could there be another depression” is one of the top questions we’ve received over the past week. “Yes, we are in a recession and many are worried if things may get much worse before they get better,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “But we continue to think the double-barrel of support from [...]
We rolled out our Road to Recovery playbook at the start of the week to help investors gauge where the market is in its bottoming process. The first and most important piece of that playbook—visibility into a peak in new COVID-19 cases—remains elusive, but we hope to have a clearer picture with the next couple of [...]
Retirement Income - Believe it or not, it's been 10 years since the Great Recession of 2008. That means we’ve had a whole decade to correct our financial missteps of the past, right? Unfortunately, there are some alarming stats that say otherwise. When the markets are up, it’s easy to forget about the hardships we [...]
