The yield curve flattened over the first quarter of 2017. Longer-term Treasury yields fell, as investors became increasingly skeptical about the Trump administration’s ability to enact the expansionary policies that markets had priced in during the fourth quarter of 2016. Additionally, a record short position in long-dated Treasury futures accumulated over February and the decline in rates in March led [...]
An important shift has taken place in this economic cycle. The Federal Reserve (Fed) was finally able to start following through on its projected rate hike path, raising rates twice in just over a three-month period. By doing so, the Fed showed increasing trust that the economy has largely met its dual mandate of 2% inflation and full employment, that the [...]
The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) May 2–3, 2017 meeting signaled that the Fed is likely to continue tightening monetary policy and may begin to normalize (reduce) its balance sheet toward year-end. The unwinding of the balance sheet by the Fed and the strategy it employs to accomplish this will be material to global markets. Despite [...]
