The State of Play

In a July 21 open letter posted on social media, President Biden wrote that he has concluded “it is in the best interest” of the Democratic Party and the country for him to “stand down from reelection” and subsequently posted on X that Vice President Kamala Harris has his “full support and endorsement.” Shortly after, Harris announced, in accepting the endorsement, that her “intention is to earn and win this nomination” for President of the United States.

How the Nominating Process Works

Typically, the presidential candidate and vice-presidential candidate are nominated at conventions. However, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) had previously scheduled a virtual nomination process to take place August 1-7 to meet ballot deadlines, which they plan to proceed with next week.

Biden’s pledged delegates are now technically “uncommitted” and not bound by his endorsement of Harris, who will need to secure support from 1,969 of the 3,936 pledged delegates on the first ballot. As of late last week, Harris announced she has enough pledged delegates to win the nomination, as well as support from the majority of the Democratic caucus in the House and Senate and Hill leadership, all but clearing the way for her to win the nomination.

Campaign Operation and Fundraising

The Biden for President campaign committee has already filed an amended statement of organization with the Federal Election Commission, changing its name to Harris for President. Because the principal campaign committee for a political party’s presidential candidate is also the campaign committee for the vice-presidential candidate, Vice President Harris is the only nominee who could take over the committee’s account, campaign funds, and staff. The account currently holds $96 million in campaign contributions. On an all-staff call, campaign leadership pushed for continuity. The Harris campaign reported it raised more than $100 million since Sunday.

Ballot Access

As it stands, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are on the ballot for all 50 states. If a new Democratic Party nominee is chosen, the new campaign would have to garner ballot access for the new ticket. Most deadlines have passed, and several GOP officials have indicated the Republican party and/or the Trump campaign will pursue legal action. Each state has different rules for how political parties must certify their candidate and how many days before the election this must take place. Even if Vice President Harris or a new candidate were to secure ballot access in time for the election, the outcome could be open to novel lawsuits after the election is conducted but before it is certified by Congress.

Possible Running Mates

Most vetting processes for a vice presidential candidate take at least 90 days. This year’s process will be a very condensed vetting period with the likely selection of a known, well-vetted candidate, such as a Governor or U.S. Senator. Currently, Governor Shapiro (PA) and Senator Kelly (AZ) are the top contenders for VP, and the campaign has also requested vetting materials from Govs. Whitmer (MI), and Walz (MN). It has been reported that Harris will tour battleground states with her vice presidential candidate next week.
Governor Josh Shapiro: Gov. Shapiro, 51, was elected governor of Pennsylvania in 2022 after serving as the state’s attorney general from 2017 until he moved into the governor’s office. Pennsylvania is a must-win state for Democrats. Gov. Shapiro won 56 percent of the vote in 2022.

Senator Mark Kelly: The Arizona senator first rose to national prominence after his wife, Representative Gabby Giffords, survived an assassination attempt in 2011. Mr. Kelly, 60, a veteran of the Navy and a former astronaut, began campaigning for stricter gun control. He won his Senate seat in 2020. He has carved out an image as a moderate in Arizona.

Policy Positions
While the race to be the Democratic nominee for President is Harris’ to lose, below outline some of her positions on retirement, tax, and labor policy, including priorities from her failed 2020 campaign and bills sponsored while she was a member of the Senate. Should she prevail and win, it is anticipated that she will adopt most of Biden campaign’s policy priorities.

  • Individual, Corporate, and Financial Transaction Taxes: Harris has favorably discussed “revers[ing] President Trump’s trillion-dollar tax cut for big corporations and the top 1%” by imposing “higher taxes on the top 1% . . . and making the top 1% and corporations pay their fair share through a more progressive income, payroll, and estate tax.” Harris also proposed to impose a financial transaction tax that would tax stock trades at 0.2%, bond trades at 0.1%, and derivatives at 0.002%.
  • Multiemployer Pensions: Harris cosponsored the Butch Lewis Act (S. 2254, 116th), a bill that would establish the Pension Rehabilitation Administration within the Treasury Department to issue loans to multiemployer plans that are in “critical and declining” status.
  • Social Security Benefits: Harris cosponsored the Social Security Expansion Act (S. 478, 116th), a bill that would increase Social Security benefits “across the board,” increase minimum benefits for certain individuals, use the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly to make cost of living adjustments, and combine the OASI and DI Trust Funds. The bill would also continue benefits up to age 22 for children of deceased or disabled individuals, if such children are enrolled as full-time students.
  • Social Security Taxes: The Social Security Expansion Act would impose a payroll tax of 12.4% (split equally between employees and employers) on income over $250,000 and raise the current net investment income tax from 3.8% to 10%.
  • Capital Gains: To pay for her Medicare for All plan, Harris has favorably discussed taxing capital gains at the same rate as ordinary income.
  • Estate Tax: Harris’ proposal to increase teacher pay would be funded “by increasing the estate tax for the top 1 percent of taxpayers and cracking down on loopholes that let the very wealthiest, with estates worth multiple millions or billions of dollars, avoid paying their fair share.”
    Middle Class Tax Credit: Harris sponsored the LIFT the Middle-Class Act (S. 4, 116th), a bill that would provide a refundable tax credit of up to $6,000 to married households earning less than $100,000 ($3,000 for single filers earning less than $50,000). Taxpayers could choose to receive the credit in equal monthly payments throughout the year.
  • PRO Act: During her time in the Senate, Harris co-sponsored the Protecting a Right to Organize Act (PRO Act), which would employ the stringent ABC test to determine worker status for the purposes of unionizing.

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Disclosures:

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. This material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC

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