An old Wall Street adage says bond markets are smarter than equity markets, so when stocks encounter volatility, investors often look to the bond market for clues about the potential severity of equity market weakness. The option-adjusted spread (OAS), a key data point, adjusts a bond’s yield for any unique features of the bond in [...]
We continue to follow our Road to Recovery Playbook for help determining where the market is in its bottoming process. Today we are making two changes: The first is to Signal #1, which we upgraded from “monitoring daily” to ”almost there.” We aren’t ready to check this one off completely, based on the latest data from Johns [...]
For those fortunate few individuals whose personal wealth exceeds the current estate-tax exemption threshold -- $5.43 million for 2015 rising to $5.45 million for 2016 -- today's historically low interest rate environment offers potentially powerful wealth transfer opportunities. Recent low rates of interest have affected two important factors used to value wealth transfers involving trusts [...]
Can stocks keep their momentum once the Federal Reserve quits easing? “Easing without end” will finally end. According to its June policy meeting minutes, the Federal Reserve plans to wrap up QE3 (Quantitative Easing) this fall. Barring economic turbulence, the central bank’s ongoing stimulus effort will conclude on schedule, with a last $15 billion cut [...]
If the central bank ceased easing, could stocks continue their ascent? Provided by Erick Arndt Could this bull market last with less help from the Federal Reserve? Is it propped up by the Fed’s stimulus, or strong enough to sustain itself if the central bank reduces its efforts? Some factors hint that the economy and [...]
